Vintage differentiated regulation can help address
differences in MAC from command and control.
However, it raises additional issues, particularly with dynamic
investment decisions.
With vintage differentiated regulation (VDR),
standards depend on the entry date of each unit.
Newer units face more restrictive regulations.
Older units are often exempt (“grandfathering”)
Examples
Clean Air Act New Source Review
Emissions standards for automobiles
Clean Water Act effluent limits for water
treatment plants
Why use VDR?
Efficiency
Costs are lower for newer units
Holding all plants to the same standard is not cost effective
In principle, CAC could mimic an efficient standard if each plant’s regulations varied depending on MAC.
However, this is hard to observe.
Effect on investment
Firms invest if NPV of benefits (net of O&M
costs) > cost of investment
VDR makes investment more costly
Both initial costs and O&M costs higher
As a result, investment falls, and capital
is kept longer
In extreme cases, VDR could lead to more
emissions in the short run, as older, less efficient equipment
is kept longer than before.
Note that market structure matters
The effects will be largest in competitive
markets.
Plants facing rate of return regulation
find it easier to pass costs on to customers.
For example, studying the effect of NOX
trading markets, Fowlie (2007) finds that plants in
deregulated markets are less likely to invest in capital
intensive equipment.
Evidence: Automobiles
VDR for automobiles:
Emission standards
Safety standards
Fuel economy regulations
Note that retrofitting older vehicles would be
very expensive and hard to enforce.
Thus VDR makes sense for automobiles.
Evidence from 1981 emissions standards increase
Using price elasticities and estimates of
cost increases from new emission standards, Gruenspecht found
that VDR led to a 2-4% decrease in sales in the first 5 years
after new standards
Effect on emissions
CO emissions up 1%/year for first 4
years
HC emissions up 2%/year for first 5
years
NOX emissions fell immediately
Note that, by 1990, CO emissions down 5.3%,
and HC emissions down 16%
Alternatives:
Pay people to scrap old vehicles.
Greunspecht suggests a $250 bounty for scrapping cars
more than 15 years old.
Gas taxes instead of fuel economy standards
Evidence: New Source Review
New Source Review (NSR) is part of the Clean
Air Act
Regulations apply only to new sources
However, existing sources that make major
modifications must also comply.
Several studies find that NSR lowers
investment, thus extending the life of power plants.
NSR can also raise the cost of operating newer
plants.
As
a result, newer plants may be idled first.
Stanton (1993) found that plants with
weaker regulations were used more intensely.
NSR can discourage investment at older plants.
However, Wolfram and Bushnell (2008) find
that this effect is small.
They find that NSR reduces capital expenditures at existing plants, but they find no change in operating costs, fuel efficiency, or emissions.
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